The recent legislative election in France, featuring the candidates Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen essentially boiled down to one controversial question; should France shut its doors and cut ties with the European Union, or rather would France be better off enacting policies allowing a more interdependent Europe?

When the final votes were counted, Macron emerged triumphant as the new French President.

The opinions of the French became apparent through the outcome of this election: a strong France will result from a strong interconnected Europe.

Macron ran his campaign on the promise of bringing changes to France. Many of these changes centered upon France’s economy including:

• Cutting corporate tax rates over time from 33% to 25%;

• Investing 50 billion euros over the next five years in training, energy, transportation and other areas to spur French economic activity;

• Decreasing public spending by 60 billion euros a year;

• Reforming the existing wealth tax.

However, Macron’s proposition to change had impacts not only for the citizens of France, but some of his proposals could lead to significant shifts in the European Union as a whole if enacted.

A few of these dynamic policies, include the establishment of a common fiscal policy throughout the EU and creating a joint finance minister overseeing the EU’s economic policies. There are mixed sentiments throughout Europe concerning the outcome of these proposed policy changes.

Those who support Macron’s vision say that such actions are likely to increase the EU’s market credibility on a global scale. They assume the economic integration of the EU would increase the efficiency between EU member countries, inspiring foreign investors to increase their investments in the region and hence foster European fiscal growth. Those against these proposed changes are worried for the countries with high national debt that may become a too heavy burden for the economically sound countries of the EU to support. They’re afraid these policies changes proposed by Macron may result in the economic downfall of the entire EU.

Italy and France

Historically within the EU, France and Italy have exhibited strong institutional ties with one another. They have forged several bilateral political contacts on international crises, in addition to contacts concerning European and cultural issues over the years. Furthermore, these two countries’ economies are highly interrelated with each other, seen through the approximant 78 billion euros of trade between them in 2015. Additionally, France is Italy’s second largest export destination, and one fifth of Italy’s total FDI is invested directly by France. SACE also projects a 12.8bn increase in Italian exports to France by the year 2019.

The interdependent economic relationship among these two countries creates significant implications regarding Macron’s proposed policy changes. If Macron’s ideas are successful and spur economic growth for France this could have an indirect effect of fostering similar economic growth within Italy. Yet, if Macron’s propositions are unsuccessful this could create negative economic impacts upon France and similarly result in adverse outcomes for Italy’s economy.

Currently one can only speculate the ultimate consequences that will result from the changes Macron hopes to enact. However, one thing can be known for certain; the impacts of such actions will be felt far beyond the borders of France.

Fonte: a cura di Exportiamo, di Morgan Caldarera, redazione@exportiamo.it

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